National forecasts are a starting point, but what happens here in Buffalo shapes your next move.

Every year around this time, the predictions start flying. The housing market is about to crash. Mortgage rates are finally going to tumble. Some huge shift is right around the corner. If you’ve been trying to decide whether to buy or sell in Western New York, all that noise can leave you frozen.

So let’s set the headlines aside and look at what the experts actually forecast for 2027, and what it could mean here in Buffalo.

Prices should keep rising, just gradually. One of the biggest questions heading into next year is whether home prices finally come down. The good news for homeowners is that most major national forecasters aren’t predicting a widespread decline. They expect values to keep climbing, just at a slower pace. Fannie Mae’s latest forecast expects home prices to rise about 0.6% in 2027, while a survey of more than 100 housing experts puts that figure closer to 2%. Those are modest increases, but they’re still increases, not the major drop some buyers have been waiting for.

And locally, there’s even less sign of a decline. Across the Buffalo area, the median sale price has held around $264,000, up roughly 5% from a year earlier, while the number of homes for sale has climbed about 11%.

Here in Buffalo, the market remains very competitive: homes are selling in roughly 12 days, often a few percent above asking. Values have held, and inventory has started to loosen, so buyers have more to choose from than a year ago.

That combination matters. For homeowners thinking about selling, it’s a reminder your home likely still holds strong value. For buyers hoping for a big price drop, it’s worth understanding the local market isn’t heading that way.

"The national market only tells part of the story. In Western New York, your neighborhood matters more."

Mortgage rates are still the biggest question mark. As of October, the average 30-year rate had climbed above 7%, and the forecasts for next year point the same direction.

In its latest outlook, Fannie Mae now expects rates to average around 7.5% in 2027, and the Mortgage Bankers Association expects them to stay above 7% through next year. The forecasters have largely converged: neither sees the unusually low rates of a few years ago coming back.

Nobody is predicting a return to the unusually low rates we saw a few years ago. For buyers around Buffalo, that means it’s more useful to focus on what you can comfortably afford today than to build your whole plan around a rate that may never come back.

Your monthly payment is about more than the rate, too. Purchase price, property taxes, insurance, and your down payment all matter, and depending on the home and seller, there may be room to negotiate closing costs or other concessions. Look at the full financial picture before deciding whether now is the right time.

The smartest move is about you, not the market. So what does all this mean if you’re thinking about buying or selling in Western New York? The market is showing signs of change. Inventory has grown, buyers have more choices, and values have held up. But that doesn’t mean every neighborhood or price range looks the same.

A home in Williamsville may draw different competition than one in South Buffalo, Hamburg, or Niagara County. A property’s condition, location, and pricing all shape how fast it sells and what buyers will pay. That’s why I encourage people to look past the national headlines and focus on their own neighborhood.

If you’re buying, there may be room to explore more homes and negotiate terms that work for you. If you’re selling, knowing your home’s current value, what similar properties are fetching, and the competition you’ll face matters far more than a national prediction.

The better question isn’t “What will the housing market do next year?” It’s “Does making a move make sense for me and my family right now?” That’s the conversation I’d much rather have.

If you’d like to talk through what the 2027 outlook could mean for you, I’m always happy to help. Reach out at (716) 870-6226, email me at Joe@TheSacconeTeam.com, or visit thesacconeteam.com. We can look at what’s happening in your part of WNY, talk through your options, and figure out a plan that fits you.